I can count on this question in every listing appointment. And the short answer is, “Depends”.

Depends on:

• Where your house is located
• How you price it
• What kind of condition it’s in
• And a host of other external factors that buyers and sellers don’t have direct input into, like interest rates, tax incentives, consumer confidence, …..

Today, I’ve pulled some Altos Research housing data, to show you how long homes have been listed for sale in Scottsdale.  In this first chart, for the whole of Scottsdale, you can see that number of days on the market peaked in July and has started a steady downward trend.

However, we all know that real estate is local, so I’ve done a quick comparison of the Median Days on Market for several Scottsdale zip codes.

First, from the southernmost part of the city, Scottsdale 85257, time to sell a house didn’t start decreasing until the September.

In Scottsdale 85258, where McCormick and Gainey Ranches are located, Days on Market matched the same pattern as the City of Scottsdale and started decreasing in July.

The same trend is true for Scottsdale zip code 85255, home to McDowell Mountain and DC Ranches, as well as Grayhawk.

However, moving northward toward Carefree and Cave Creek, you can see that the zip code 85266, home to many luxury homes and the community of Terravita, the number of days to sell a house still has not peaked.

When it comes times to sell your home, you will want to look a lot closer at statistics in your neighborhood.  Some subdivisions sell much more quickly than others, so it’s imperative you have a good sense of what is going on close to home, as well as in the surrounding areas.  Armed with current and relevant data, you and your agent can then price your house to sell, know just how long it might take.

Related Links – More Scottsdale Real Estate Statistics

To take a look at what is going on currently (as of the day your are reading this post), you can look at the following reports for the city of Scottsdale and then for each Scottsdale zip code:

Scottsdale Real Estate Statistics – Single Family Homes

• 85262 – North Scottsdale including Desert Mountain, north of Jomax and east of Pima Road
• 85266 – North Scottsdale including Terravita, north of Jomax and west of Pima (new zip code as of 7/1/2007)
• 85255 – North Scottsdale, including DC Ranch, Grayhawk, and McDowell Mountain Ranch
• 85260 – North Scottsdale, between Shea Boulevard and Bell Road
• 85254 – Scottsdale address, but located in City of Phoenix. North of Shea and South of the aqueduct.
• 85259 – North Scottsdale, mostly east of 104th Street and west of Fountain Hills
• 85258 – Central Scottsdale, including McCormick Ranch and Gainey Ranch
• 85250 – Central Scottsdale, between Chaparral and Indian Bend Roads
• 85251 – Downtown / South Scottsdale, between Chaparral and Thomas Roads
• 85257 – South Scottsdale, south of Thomas Road to the Tempe border

In the following charts, I’ve shown prices for both 2007 and 2008.  Listing prices started dropping off in fall 2007, and continued until mid-summer of 2008.  After a sharp increase in the fall, list prices are now comparable to the same time last year.

Median List Price Comparison 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)

What is clear is that even with the declining prices, average time to sell is still climbing steadily.

Days on Market Comparison 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)

Inventory (the number of homes on the market) grew in 2007, with a small fluctuation in late summer / early fall.  While inventory continued to increase in 2008, the same late summer fluctuation was evident.

Condo Inventory Comparison 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)

Finally, you will see that while the Scottsdale area approached a more balanced market in the spring of 2007, it quickly changed into a very strong buyer’s market.  That buyer’s market has continued through 2007 and 2008.  In the early fall, it appeared that the market was improving, but that trend has been short-lived.

Condo Market Action 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)

We shall see what changes the new year brings.

See yesterday’s post for the single family home report.

Definition of the Market Action Index, courtesy of Altos Research:

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller’s Market” (a.k.a. “Hot Market”) because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a “Buyer’s Market” (a.k.a. “Cold Market”) where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

The following charts cover the past month, and data was collected from our local MLS service. Overall, you can see that it is still a buyer’s market, for all types of dwellings. 

Looking below at single family homes, we can see that in the lower (Scottsdale) price ranges of $500,000 and under, the market is looking very good, from a seller’s perspective.  And then it slows, as price increases.

Townhouse, patio homes, and condos are selling in the under $150,000 price range, but sales are not keeping up with inventory above that price range, and drop off much more rapidly than with single family homes.

For the past month, the $1 million and above price range has been less than sluggish, with only one sale.  With condos, the drop in sales actually starts with anything priced above $300,000.

So, if you are a seller with a home priced under $500,000 or a condo, townhouse or patio home priced under $150,000, sales may not be brisk yet, but they happening. And if you are buyer looking in this lower price ranges, be ready to take action, as you may have some competition!

Related Posts:

Phoenix area homes are selling in the lower price ranges

Scottsdale Home Prices: Skiing down hill, or not?

Scottsdale Real Estate: Still a Strong Buyer’s Market