by Dru Bloomfield on February 5, 2010
Last summer, pre-foreclosures and lender-owned properties made up 25% of the active listings in the MLS. However, about 45% of the actual sales were distressed properties. Average price per square for a normal home sale was just over $200 per square foot, $150/sf for a pre-foreclosure, and closer to $140/sf for lender owned properties.
Looking at where we are today, you can see that we have a slightly larger number of pre-foreclosures on the market and about 50% of all the properties sold in January were either pre-foreclosure (and most likely short sales) or lender-owned (REO) properties. What is very interesting is that the average price per square foot has increased for all property types, to almost $240/sf for normal sales, to about $160/sf for pre-foreclosures, and to $150/sf for foreclosures.
I expected the higher numbers of distressed listings and sales. However, the increased price per square foot was totally unexpected.
I’ve been seeing an increase in prices in the lower end of the real estate market in various cities around Phoenix, but have not seen much of that pricing behavior in Scottsdale yet. By the numbers though, it is happening. Surprised me…. what do you think?
by Dru Bloomfield on December 7, 2009
It’s been awhile since I checked out the Cromford Report stats for Scottsdale real estate. I think we are looking for some sign of sustainable, positive change, but for the most part, I think many would agree that holding steady is a welcomed change!
Depending on whether you look at short-term or long-term numbers, there are 9-11 months of inventory (properties for sale) in the city of Scottsdale.
The following definitions will help you see the difference between the short and long-term view:
Days Inventory Based on Annual Sales – The number of days it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last year.
Days Inventory Based on Monthly Sales – The number of days it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last month.
It’s important to look at both of these figures, because the monthly sales figures can be inflated or deflated depending on the time of year. For example, our numbers in November typically taper off, but this year, they were buoyed by the anticipated end of the 2009 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.
Moving on to look at Market Demand, you can see that the landscape is gradually improving. Supply is still a bit high. Demand is improving. But, overall the real estate sales environment in Scottsdale appears to be moving in a positive direction.
The definitions the indexes in the chart above are:
Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the demand position within the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a weakness in demand, while values above 100 indicate a stronger than normal demand. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Cromford Supply Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the supply position within the market. It is derived from the trends in active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a shortage of supply, while values above 100 indicate an excess supply. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Price per square foot is one of the truest indicators of home pricing. As you can see here, price continue to depreciate in Scottsdale, but the city has not been hit nearly as hard as many of the other parts of the Valley. Looking at the monthly averages, you can see that possibly we are at a plateau in average sales price per square foot.
I’d like to make a big conclusion about where are going from here, but for now I will just say "It is, what it is." One thing I do believe is that the worst is behind us.
Data Source: Arizona Regional MLS/ Cromford Report
by Dru Bloomfield on November 7, 2009
I’ve been taking quite a few real estate classes over the past several months as I complete my requirements for the Arizona MRE (Master of Real Estate) Society. Earlier this week, I attended a class entitled, "Listing Property in Today’s Market".
The instructor made a comment that there wasn’t much to comment on regarding the current state of real estate. In some ways, his statement is really true. During this past six months, we have been experiencing real estate that seems to be "more of the same". Decreasing inventory. Decreasing prices. Increasing sales.
Just to make sure, I took a look at the latest Cromford Report data for Scottsdale.
Sure enough.
Active listings have dropped by about 30% since the beginning of the year and have been holding steady at just above 3,000 properties since June.
![clip_image001[9]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0019_thumb.gif "clip_image001[9]")
Price per square foot is still decreasing for both home listings and sales, but at a small steady rate. No significant drops. No sign of appreciation either.
![clip_image001[5]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0015_thumb.gif "clip_image001[5]")
Sales per month peaked in the summer months, yet remain stronger than where Scottsdale monthly home sales started at the beginning of the year.
![clip_image001[7]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0017_thumb.gif "clip_image001[7]")
Even foreclosure activity has remained fairly consistent over the past six months.
When I look for real estate issues to write about, I am usually looking for change. Hearing this instructor’s observation about "business as usual" caught my attention. After all, the real estate drama that we’ve experienced over the past five years, just a bit "sameness" gives us a chance to see what today’s "normal" looks like, and maybe even breath a collective sigh of relief. Not to say that short sales and foreclosures are behind us, but quite possibly, we are entering a more stable market for the foreseeable future.
by Dru Bloomfield on November 7, 2009
By now you may know that the real estate tax credit has been extended to contracts written and accepted by April 30th, 2010, and also expanded to included move-up home buyers.
The National Association of Realtors published this helpful guide for comparing the program that was expiring on November 30th with the one which was just signed by President Obama yesterday.
NAR Issue Brief: Homebuyer Tax Credit
A couple of the highlights include:
- Purchase contracts must be written by April 30, 2010.
- Move-up home buyers are eligible for a $6500 tax credit, providing they meet income limits and occupancy rules.
- First-time home buyers are still eligible for a $8000 tax credit, with income limits.
- Qualifying home prices are capped at $800,000.
I suspect that there are a few home buyers that are breathing a sigh of relief, knowing that they still have time to find a home, make an offer, and close before the extended 2010 deadline.
And there’s the potential to release a whole new wave of homes for sale. Homes that have been lived in, where the owners have taken care of them, and will disclose the history of the home to the buyer. I’ve listed six houses like this in just the past two weeks, and I suspect that I will be hearing from a few more folks who’ve been sitting on the fence, deciding whether the time was right to sell and buy up.
I do have questions:
- Are move-up home buyers immediately eligible?
- What if they have an accepted contract scheduled to closed between today and December 1st?
UPDATE:
Here’s a link to the actual language of H.R. 3548: Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009. The bill appears to extend the dates, so that it appears that a seller who has lived in the current home for five consecutive years, out of the past eight, could get the tax credit for a home purchase as early as Monday. You will find the Extension and Modification of First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit in Section 11.
by Dru Bloomfield on October 26, 2009
I haven’t done a market report on Scottsdale 85258, home to the “Ranches”…. McCormick, Gainey, and Scottsdale. In January, I posted this same chart in the post: McCormick Ranch Real Estate – Least Distressed Area of Scottsdale.
A few changes have occurred in past ten months, while some metrics stayed the same.
What you will see when you compare now and then:
- The percentage of homes on the market that are foreclosures or short sales remain under 25% and in approximately the same ratio, with more short sales than foreclosures.
- The percentage of sold properties that are short sales or foreclosures are about the same, approaching 33%. However, foreclosures now make up a greater portion of those sales. Even more importantly, 67% of the homes sold today in this part of Scottsdale are traditional sale, with no bank involvement.
- The biggest differences you will see are in price.
- Homes were being listed at an average of $200-300 per square foot at the beginning of the year. Now, that range is $175-250/sf.
- Sold prices are averaging in the $150-200 per square foot range, while earlier this year, they were $175-275. The biggest change has been in the short sales.
What is missing here are the number of sales that are being used to calculate these statistics. I’ll be taking a look at those figures in the future.
For now, know that the McCormick Ranch is fairly stable, even though average home prices have dropped considerably.
by Dru Bloomfield on September 17, 2009
Both Phoenix and Scottsdale home prices have continued to depreciate, although based on sales price per square foot figures, this chart shows that momentum in Phoenix shifted in a positive direction late last year. However, you can see that both Phoenix and Scottsdale home prices are about 30% lower than they were at this time last year.
![clip_image001[9]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0019.gif "clip_image001[9]")
![clip_image001[5]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0015.gif "clip_image001[5]")
![clip_image001[7]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0017.gif "clip_image001[7]")
