by Dru Bloomfield on February 5, 2010
Last summer, pre-foreclosures and lender-owned properties made up 25% of the active listings in the MLS. However, about 45% of the actual sales were distressed properties. Average price per square for a normal home sale was just over $200 per square foot, $150/sf for a pre-foreclosure, and closer to $140/sf for lender owned properties.
Looking at where we are today, you can see that we have a slightly larger number of pre-foreclosures on the market and about 50% of all the properties sold in January were either pre-foreclosure (and most likely short sales) or lender-owned (REO) properties. What is very interesting is that the average price per square foot has increased for all property types, to almost $240/sf for normal sales, to about $160/sf for pre-foreclosures, and to $150/sf for foreclosures.
I expected the higher numbers of distressed listings and sales. However, the increased price per square foot was totally unexpected.
I’ve been seeing an increase in prices in the lower end of the real estate market in various cities around Phoenix, but have not seen much of that pricing behavior in Scottsdale yet. By the numbers though, it is happening. Surprised me…. what do you think?
by Dru Bloomfield on November 7, 2009
I’ve been taking quite a few real estate classes over the past several months as I complete my requirements for the Arizona MRE (Master of Real Estate) Society. Earlier this week, I attended a class entitled, "Listing Property in Today’s Market".
The instructor made a comment that there wasn’t much to comment on regarding the current state of real estate. In some ways, his statement is really true. During this past six months, we have been experiencing real estate that seems to be "more of the same". Decreasing inventory. Decreasing prices. Increasing sales.
Just to make sure, I took a look at the latest Cromford Report data for Scottsdale.
Sure enough.
Active listings have dropped by about 30% since the beginning of the year and have been holding steady at just above 3,000 properties since June.
![clip_image001[9]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0019_thumb.gif "clip_image001[9]")
Price per square foot is still decreasing for both home listings and sales, but at a small steady rate. No significant drops. No sign of appreciation either.
![clip_image001[5]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0015_thumb.gif "clip_image001[5]")
Sales per month peaked in the summer months, yet remain stronger than where Scottsdale monthly home sales started at the beginning of the year.
![clip_image001[7]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0017_thumb.gif "clip_image001[7]")
Even foreclosure activity has remained fairly consistent over the past six months.
When I look for real estate issues to write about, I am usually looking for change. Hearing this instructor’s observation about "business as usual" caught my attention. After all, the real estate drama that we’ve experienced over the past five years, just a bit "sameness" gives us a chance to see what today’s "normal" looks like, and maybe even breath a collective sigh of relief. Not to say that short sales and foreclosures are behind us, but quite possibly, we are entering a more stable market for the foreseeable future.
by Dru Bloomfield on October 26, 2009
I haven’t done a market report on Scottsdale 85258, home to the “Ranches”…. McCormick, Gainey, and Scottsdale. In January, I posted this same chart in the post: McCormick Ranch Real Estate – Least Distressed Area of Scottsdale.
A few changes have occurred in past ten months, while some metrics stayed the same.
What you will see when you compare now and then:
- The percentage of homes on the market that are foreclosures or short sales remain under 25% and in approximately the same ratio, with more short sales than foreclosures.
- The percentage of sold properties that are short sales or foreclosures are about the same, approaching 33%. However, foreclosures now make up a greater portion of those sales. Even more importantly, 67% of the homes sold today in this part of Scottsdale are traditional sale, with no bank involvement.
- The biggest differences you will see are in price.
- Homes were being listed at an average of $200-300 per square foot at the beginning of the year. Now, that range is $175-250/sf.
- Sold prices are averaging in the $150-200 per square foot range, while earlier this year, they were $175-275. The biggest change has been in the short sales.
What is missing here are the number of sales that are being used to calculate these statistics. I’ll be taking a look at those figures in the future.
For now, know that the McCormick Ranch is fairly stable, even though average home prices have dropped considerably.
by Dru Bloomfield on July 17, 2009
The following two charts show a few of the the changes in the Scottsdale real estate market over the past three months, in particular related to short sales and foreclosures. I’ve put small version of of the charts next to each other here, and then larger views, down below, so you can actually read them.
The chart on the left is 3 months old, and the chart on the right is current. You can see that short sales (light blue) and foreclosures (red) have been increasing and now comprise just over 25% of the active listings in Scottsdale. Quite a bit less than most other Phoenix cities, with the possible exception of Tempe. However, when you look at the actual sales, comparing March to June, you will see that the combination of short sales and foreclosures have decreased, but in actuality, it’s the foreclosure component that’s reduced. This decrease may be related to the foreclosure moratorium that was introduced by lenders earlier this year.
Looking a bit closer at the dynamics of the market, you can see that the listing prices for normal (no bank involved on seller side), short, and lender-owned properties is holding steady. However, the average price per square foot, has dropped dramatically. For a normal sale, the price has dropped about 20%, from approximately $250/sf, as of April 2009 to $200/sf in the July chart. Average short sale prices have dropped from $175/sf to $150/sf, and average sales prices of bank-owned properties seem to be leveling off, only dropping from $150 to $140 per square foot.
The Cromford Index is trending in a positive direction, yet still shows significant market distress.
Scottsdale has experienced a different real estate market than most of the rest of the valley. Yet, in some ways it’s very similar. Foreclosures are being gobbled up. Buyers are resorting to making offers on short sales. Overpriced normal sales sit on the market for months and months.
What’s important for sellers to know is that your house must be priced to the market, if you want sell. Buyers need to be pre-approved and ready to make a strong offer, so you can act quickly, when you find a seller who is realistic, and a house that’s market-priced. Competition exists for these well-priced properties, especially if they are in good condition, so it’s very important to keep up on on the current real estate market in Scottsdale.
Related Post:
Scottsdale Short Sale and Foreclosure Update – December 16, 2008
by Dru Bloomfield on July 15, 2009
Mike Orr at the Cromford Report just reported the following update for Phoenix area real estate:
Good news for sellers in pre-foreclosure or short sale situations. Their chances of a successful listing have improved from less than 20% in February to over 45% as of July 5. In fact for the first time in history, the success rate for short sales and pre-foreclosures (45.7%) exceeds that for normal sales (44.8%). This is not necessarily bad news for sellers in normal sales situations, since their success rate has also improved from around 22% in early February. Meanwhile lender owned properties are maintaining their phenomenal success rate of 91%, having improved from 65% in February.
More details on whether the Scottsdale real estate market is following this same trend to follow in the next couple of days.
by Dru Bloomfield on July 2, 2009
Altos Research has a proprietary market action index they use to track the real estate market. Looking at Scottsdale’s action over the past year, it shows that real estate is on an upward trend. Sales are up. Inventory (number of homes for sale) is down. Prices are still dropping. All of these aspects of the real estate market are included in calculating the health of the market. From this chart, Scottsdale still has a long way to go since an index of 30 is considered a balanced market, but for now, it’s headed in a healthier direction.
Not being content with generalities, and knowing that real estate is local, I’ve broken down this same indicator by zip code, and then grouped by North, Central, and South Scottsdale.
South Scottsdale Real Estate
This area covers from Indian Bend Road south to Tempe. The lower priced homes in 85257 are definitely leading the way, but 85251 and 85250, are not far behind and are following the same trend of improvement, since the low point at the beginning of 2009.
Central Scottsdale
This area runs from Indian Bend Road north to about Bell Road, but doesn’t include McDowell Mountain Ranch. The Scottsdale zip codes 85254 (that’s located mostly in the City of Phoenix) and 85260 are showing the most improvement (since Feb 2009) with 85259 (east of the 101), and 85258 (McCormick and Gainey Ranches) bringing up the rear.
North Scottsdale
North Scottsdale Scotts zip codes 85255, 85266, and 85262 are showing improvement as we move through the year and are much more stable than the latter part of 2008.
When you look at the where the Market Action Index is currently hovering for each portion of the city, you see that South Scottsdale with it’s lower prices is seeing stronger improvement than up north, where the average price of a home is considerably higher.
To put it in perspective:
North Scottsdale Market Index ranges from 11-13. Central Scottsdale ranges from 13-16, and South Scottsdale ranges from 15-18.
From the charts, you can see that the latter portion of 2008 was considerably stronger than anything we’ve seen this year. Short sales and foreclosures are playing an increasing role in the Scottsdale real estate market. Time will tell what the overall impact will be.
![clip_image001[9]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0019.gif "clip_image001[9]")
![clip_image001[5]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0015.gif "clip_image001[5]")
![clip_image001[7]](http://athomeinscottsdale.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image0017.gif "clip_image001[7]")
