Median Price Change by ZIP Code – Sep 2008

Single Family Detached

Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service between Jan 1, 2001 and Sep 1, 2008 © 2008 www.cromfordreport.com

Probably one of the most interesting findings from this real estate report is that while the number of home sales started decreasing in 2005, most of the median high sales prices occurred in 2007.

Reasons for Optimism

Price

The area within the 85257 zip code has the most affordable homes in Scottsdale. Most qualify for FHA financing, and first time home buyers have been purchasing here. Investors are also beginning to see options that provide for a positive cash flow when renting.

Location

Close proximity to ASU and Sky Harbor Airport. Close to the night life of downtown Scottsdale, too.

Neighborhoods

Many of the neighborhoods in South Scottsdale have a strong sense of community, with a blend of long-term and newer owners.

Recreation

With the Indian Bend wash running through the zip code, access for biking, running, and walking are close by. Fishing in the city lakes is available. So is a nearby skate park. And the new Senior Center is another draw for some resident. The zoo and desert botanical gardens are also a 10 minutes drive.

Transportation

The free trolley runs in and around this southern most zip code in Scottsdale. Some use it to get to work, or to downtown Scottsdale, or even to connect to the Tempe transportation system.

Shopping

Old Town Scottsdale, Fashion Square, and the new Tempe Marketplace provide a unique blend of established and new shopping options and are within easy driving distance.

Schools

Scottsdale public schools are among the best in the state. Several elementary schools, Supai Middle School, and Coronado High School, all reside in the 85257 zip code. Scottsdale community college is nearby, as is Arizona State University.

Home Prices Today

Comparing Median Home List Prices in Scottsdale to 85257

Median home listing price in Scottsdale is currently about $775,000, while in this southern zip code of Scottsdale, it’s closer to $260,000.

Comparing Average Days on Market in Scottsdale to 85257

As a whole, it’s taking much longer to sell a home in Scottsdale, somewhere in the range of 175 days, while in 85257, the days on market has stayed in the 100-110 day range for over six months.

Median Homes Prices by Price Range

To see if any one price range of homes was doing better than another, I broke down the list pricing into quartiles, and you can see that home prices have been falling steadily in all price ranges.

Days on Market by Price Range

I did the same breakdown again for average days on market. Most price ranges have tracked in a similar manner, with some variations during the year. At this point, the lowest price housing has been on the market, the fewest number of days, averaging about 95 days since the first of September.

Scottsdale 85257’s Most Expensive Homes

Scottsdale 85257′s most expensive homes are now listed at a median price of just under $350,000. Average days to sell has been steadily increasing to an average of 120 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Mid to Higher Priced Homes

Scottsdale 85257′s second quartile of mid to higher price homes (the 2nd quartile) homes are clearly dropping in price while taking significantly long to sell. Median price of these homes is now approximately $280,000, while increasing to a high of 135 days on market and recently dropping back to an average of 120 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Lower to Mid Priced Homes

Listing prices are also dropping steadily in Scottsdale 85257 homes priced in the 3rd quartile. Median listing price here is $240,000. Average number of days to sell has increased to an average of approximately 112 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Lowest Priced Homes

Median price in the lowest priced quadrant are now under $200,000 for the first time in a very long time. The really good news is that days on market is dropping too, and this number has been under 100 days since late summer.

Positive Changes for South Scottsdale

So as I shared earlier, there’s a glimmer of hope. It’s difficult to say when we will see pricing stabilize, but I would suspect that it come sooner for these entry level homes in South Scottsdale, than it will in other parts of the city. This southernmost area has so much going for it. It will be much easier for a positive change in the market to occur here, so we will need to keep an eye on this area and report back in a couple months.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, please leave a comment or call.

Cash? Conventional financing? FHA loans? Down payment assistance programs? Seller carry?

I mistakenly assumed that we were seeing an increase in the number of buyers paying cash this year.

(Click on the chart for a larger view.)

In actuality, conventional financing has been and continues to be the primary means that home buyers are using to purchase homes in our city. Cash is consistently the second source of payment.

The other changes that you are seeing are not surprising. The number of homes purchased with FHA loans are increasing. Down payment assistance programs are declining (and have gone away).

Other payment choices used were so minimal, I did not graph, although I have included them in the chart below.

 
I know these percentages are quite different than in many other areas of the Phoenix Metropolitan area. For instance, in the first quarter of this year, 11% of the homes purchased in the metro area used FHA financing, and I would suggest that the number is even higher now.

We are going to see changes in how homes are paid for. In years, past, FHA fell out of favor as lenders created many other financing options. With a down payment requirement of only 3.5%, and most conventional programs now requiring 10-20% down, FHA is a very viable option for first-time home buyers in Scottsdale. Scottsdale home prices have decreased, and many more now qualify for FHA financing, which currently has a ceiling of $346,250, but is expected to decrease at the beginning of the year.

We shall see if the number of cash buyers increases this fall. It’s just too early to tell.  I’ll update this chart at the end of the year. It will be interesting to see how this financial chaos will impact financing options. Stay tuned.

The chart below shows you a sample of the report and specifically what the McCormick and Gainey Ranch home listing prices are for today, September 29th.  When you click on the link above, you will get current information for the day it actually is.   A good tool to bookmark as we ride through our current market. 

This past weekend, I spent time with one of my clients who is purchasing a home in Raintree Ranch in Chandler.  When the home inspection was completed, I slipped upstairs to get a photo of this great view from the master bedroom balcony.

We do have a number of communities in Scottsdale and Chandler are built around lakes, providing water frontage and excellent lake views, and as of this morning, 80 homes with lake frontage are for sale in these two Phoenix area cities. Here are the communities that currently have homes with lake frontage listed in our local MLS. I’ve included the minimum listing price for each community also.

Chandler
The Springs, starting at $239,000
Lagos Vistoso, $299,999
Pineridge, $309,000
Ocotillo Lakes, $339,900
Silverlake, $389,000
Stillwater Cove, $408,000
Oakwood Lakes, $409,900
McQueen Lakes, $425,000
Ocotillo East, $430,000
The Peninsula in Ocotillo, $436,900
Estates at Ocotilla, $459,900
Pinelake Estates, $525,000
Harbour Club at Ocotillo, $535,000
Monterey Bay at Ocotillo, $572,500
Enclave in Ocotillo Lakes, $634,900
Alicante at Valencia, $637,000
Laguna Cove at Ocotillo, $675,000
Catalina Shores At Ocotillo, $679,900
Balboa Point, $949,000
Watermark at Ocotilla, $950,000
Embarcadero at Ocotilla, $969,000
Vistas at Ocotilla, $999,000
Santorini Shores at Ocotilla, $1,050,000
The Island at Fulton Ranch, $2,150,000
Oakwood Hills, $2,500,000
Crown Point at Ocotilla, $3,499,000

Scottsdale
Scottsdale Country Club, starting at $635,000
Island at Scottsdale Ranch, $999,999
Vista del Lago, $1,075,000
Island at McCormick Ranch, $1,190,000
Landings at Scottsdale Ranch, $1,550,000
Gainey Ranch Enclave, $1,800,000
Palo Viento in McCormick Ranch, $1,850,000
Bayview Drive in Scottsdale Ranch, $1,850,000
Desert Mountain, $3,750,000

The following charts cover the past month, and data was collected from our local MLS service. Overall, you can see that it is still a buyer’s market, for all types of dwellings. 

Looking below at single family homes, we can see that in the lower (Scottsdale) price ranges of $500,000 and under, the market is looking very good, from a seller’s perspective.  And then it slows, as price increases.

Townhouse, patio homes, and condos are selling in the under $150,000 price range, but sales are not keeping up with inventory above that price range, and drop off much more rapidly than with single family homes.

For the past month, the $1 million and above price range has been less than sluggish, with only one sale.  With condos, the drop in sales actually starts with anything priced above $300,000.

So, if you are a seller with a home priced under $500,000 or a condo, townhouse or patio home priced under $150,000, sales may not be brisk yet, but they happening. And if you are buyer looking in this lower price ranges, be ready to take action, as you may have some competition!

Related Posts:

Phoenix area homes are selling in the lower price ranges

Scottsdale Home Prices: Skiing down hill, or not?

Scottsdale Real Estate: Still a Strong Buyer’s Market

And it did look like pretty significant, in that particular chart. 

I decided to take a look at several of the cities that comprise the Phoenix Metropolitan area, to see how Scottsdale stacked up.  Somewhat, arbitrarily, I chose the cities of Phoenix, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, and Queen Creek. As you can see, Phoenix and Queen Creek, median home listing prices have dropped much more significantly over the past year, especially when viewed in terms of percentages.  Scottsdale and Cave Creek home median listing prices have decreased approximately 2%, while Phoenix and Queen Creek are closer to 25%. 

While it may have appeared in my prior post that Scottsdale home listing values were dropping fast, when put in perspective, Scottsdale has been weathering this storm pretty well.

Please note: Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market using information based on properties currently listed for sale and available publicly through services like the local multiple listing service. The data presented in this report is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such.