by Dru Bloomfield on October 22, 2009
The media talks about the hot Phoenix real estate market, yet most home sellers I meet are still operating from a perspective that no one is buying homes these day, because the market is so bad!
However, any home buyer will tell you, it’s a battle out there. Multiple offers are common in the lower price ranges, and with the deadline of the $8,000 tax credit coming up quickly, last-minute shoppers are finding that a full-price offer is often not enough.
You see in the chart above that overall Phoenix has been experiencing a seller’s market since May of this year. You can also see that the steep incline has been tapering off over the last couple of months.
When you look at the next chart showing Months Supply by Price Range, you will see that this year’s trend continues: The lower the price of the home, the lower the housing inventory.
We are seeing just a bit of change though. The Seller’s Market that we were experiencing this summer is cooling off in the $250-350K range.
- Homes priced up to $250K have less than five month’s supply. Seller’s have the upper hand here. Multiple offers are common.
- Between $250,000 and $400,000, we are seeing a balanced market.
- Over $400K, Buyer still have a lot of negotiating power, depending on how the Seller has priced the home.
If you’d like to go back and see where the market was earlier this year, these two posts will help:
Buyers Market? Sellers Market? Depends. – August 2009 view
Why is Scottsdale real estate market behind the curve? – June 2009 view
With the tax credit possibly coming to an end, the slight changes you are seeing here could continue, even more significantly. I think most would agree that any movement towards a more balanced market would be a welcome reprieve after the roller coaster ride of the past several years.
by Dru Bloomfield on July 31, 2009
I had this grand blog relating concepts of physics to real estate and ran the idea by my obliging husband to get his opinion.
I started out talking about the difference of velocity (how fast something is going) and acceleration (the rate at which the speed is changing), and then began relating it to the state of real estate in Phoenix metro.
He listened to me patiently, and then looked at me and said, "You mean, trends."
Well, yes, that is exactly what I meant.
Today’s trend is that the rate of depreciation may have reversed – once we have a couple more months of data, it will be clearer.
What I find most interesting is that Mike Orr called the bottom of the real estate market. Look at where the greatest rate of depreciation was and where it appears to have changed.
by Dru Bloomfield on June 5, 2009
This is the June update I promised a couple days ago.
April 2009 – Seller’s market (<5 months inventory) exists below $175K. Buyer’s market (>7 months supply of homes) starts at $275K.
May 2009 – Seller’s market exists below $225K. Buyer’s market starts at $350K.
June 2009 – Seller’s market exists below $350K. Buyer’s market starts at $400K.
QED
by Dru Bloomfield on May 28, 2009
Mike Orr is continually monitoring the Phoenix real estate market, looking for changes. Earlier this week, he posted the following on his web site:
This record is caused by an abnormally high number of pending listings (13,814) coupled with a very high monthly sales rate (9,630 today, or 9,249 as a rolling 7-day average). It looks likely that we shall approach or even exceed 10,000 sales through ARMLS in May 2009.
In addition, there are a record number of active listings with contingent offers (4,549), mostly associated with short sales. Offers for short sales are growing rapidly and closed short-sales exceeded 900 per month for the first time on May 21.
Most commentators seem to be focused on the fact that supply is still higher than normal (which it is, although falling very fast). However the extraordinary demand part of the equation is being largely overlooked. The demand, fueled by very low prices, low interest rates and government incentives, appears likely to grow further over the coming months.
Sales seem to be taking longer to close in recent months, breaking 10,000 sales this month may not happen, but homes are selling and inventory is definitely decreasing.
