March 29 – The supply shortage is getting increasingly severe as new listings are now being added to ARMLS at the slowest seasonal rate since the current ARMLS database began in 2000. This new chart illustrates the trend. Note that January and February listings are well down compared with the same month last year. Note also that with only 2 days left to go in March we are going to be substantially down on both 2010 and 2011. In fact it already is certain to come in at the lowest level for any March in the last 13 years.

However, any home buyer will tell you, it’s a battle out there. Multiple offers are common in the lower price ranges,  and with the deadline of the $8,000 tax credit coming up quickly, last-minute shoppers are finding that a full-price offer is often not enough.

You see in the chart above that overall Phoenix has been experiencing a seller’s market since May of this year.  You can also see that the steep incline has been tapering off over the last couple of months.

When you look at the next chart showing Months Supply by Price Range, you will see that this year’s trend continues:  The lower the price of the home, the lower the housing inventory.

We are seeing just a bit of change though.  The Seller’s Market that we were experiencing this summer is cooling off in the $250-350K range.

• Homes priced up to $250K have less than five month’s supply.  Seller’s have the upper hand here.  Multiple offers are common.
• Between $250,000 and $400,000, we are seeing a balanced market.
• Over $400K, Buyer still have a lot of negotiating power, depending on how the Seller has priced the home.

If you’d like to go back and see where the market was earlier this year, these two posts will help:

Buyers Market? Sellers Market? Depends. – August 2009 view

Why is Scottsdale real estate market behind the curve? – June 2009 view

With the tax credit possibly coming to an end, the slight changes you are seeing here could continue, even more significantly.  I think most would agree that any movement towards a more balanced market would be a welcome reprieve after the roller coaster ride of the past several years.

• More than 7 months of inventory (listed homes for sale) is a buyers’ market.
• Five to seven months is a balanced market.
• Five months or less is a seller’s market.

From the looks of this chart (data courtesy of the Arizona Regional MLS), we have entered a balanced market.  In reality, the lower end of the market is behaving more like a seller’s market, and the upper end is still very much a buyer’s market.

Will be interesting to see how the next couple of months play out.