Something very interesting going on here in the Phoenix Metro real estate market. Notice the striking changes in the first three days of July.

• A spike up in short sales.
• A slight decrease in normal sales.
• And a drop in foreclosure sales, too.

And when you look at the longer six month view, you see:

• Foreclosures dropping from just over 50% to a bit over 40% of all residential resale sales.
• Normal sales increasing from 30% of all sales to 35%, but then dropping back down to slightly above 30%.
• Successful short sales have grown from 20% to almost 30%.

I think it’ll be interesting to see if these trends hold and gain even more strength in the next 30-60 days.

The number, and percent, of third party purchases at Maricopa County Trustee (foreclosure) sales, held at various location around Phoenix, is on the rise.  Third party basically means that the property is not going back to the bank holding the note.

After a huge drop off from 82.5% of the purchases being made by third parties (investors) in May 2005, to a low of 3.0% in October 2007, the percent stagnated at near that level for over a year. Starting in February 2009, the percent of surged to the 20% range, where it stayed for almost two years. Since March of 2011, a steady increase in the percent of investor purchases has been recorded.  As of June 2011, 35% of the properties sold at trustee sales have been purchased by investors.

The other important aspect of these sales is the actual number of sales being made to third parties. Until late 2008, the number of sales was consistently under or about 200 per month. In the first half of 2009, that number jumped to well over 800 per month where it stayed mostly until earlier this year. Now the average number of sales per month to investors is around 1400.

Will be interested to watch these two metrics over the next 8-12 months. Seems quite possible that the percentage of foreclosures purchased by investors will go up, while the number of sales will stay about the same, or decrease.

I’m definitely seeing and showing a larger percentage of homes that are “fix & flips”. Fresh paint, new carpet, sometimes even an upgraded kitchen. These properties, while not foreclosures and short sales, are attractive to buyers who want to purchase in the next 30-45 days.  Some are being sold “as-is”, and many come without a seller disclosure. However, the properties are often more attractive to a home buyer, who really wants a move-in ready home.

More on the Phoenix real estate and foreclosure market:

• “Real estate is hot”–Record home sales in Phoenix
• Average Sales Price for Phoenix Homes Stable and Climbing
• Phoenix Metro Real Estate–Recovery in slow motion

Buyers have started making offers over list price, and now I’m seeing escalation clauses, where a buyer will say something like “will pay $xxx over highest offer, up to $xxx,xxx”.  I even saw one this week, with no ceiling.

If you look at what’s going on in the market for cities like Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Chandler, you can see that we do have a dwindling supply of homes.  In Phoenix, the number of homes for sale has dropped significantly and is now lower than the latter half of 2006, although inventory has remained stable throughout the summer.

You can see that Scottsdale is experiencing a similar trend, although not to the extent of Phoenix. Inventory levels still remain just above the 2006 figures.

In Chandler, the pattern is a bit different historically, but housing inventory is still decreasing, and rapidly approaching the levels seen in the latter portion of 2005.

The number of Tempe homes for sale has also decreased this year, and is now less than this same time of the year in 2006.

The town of Paradise Valley hasn’t followed same trend you have seen in these other Phoenix-area cities.  This town did not reach an all-time high home supply level until earlier this year, where in the other cities, highs were noted in either 2007 or 2008.  Home supply is dropping and is just now approaching last year’s levels.

Buyers need to know what they are getting into when they are looking for a home.  Besides lining up financing, and starting their on-line home search, it’s important to know that there’s a lot of competition, especially for foreclosures, and even for short sales.  Diligence, creativity, flexibility, and patience are needed to find the right house, craft a winning offer, and complete the sale. 

Finding the right house has always been a game of give and take.  In today’s market, even more so. Buyers may need to expand  the areas that they are willing to living in, or decide to sell their current home first, so they can consider purchasing a short sale.  Some will decide to expand the price range they are shopping in, and others may decide that certain features like a pool or garage are not imperative.  Whatever the choices made, buyer need to understand what today’s real estate market look like.  It’s not exactly a housing shortage, but in many Phoenix metro cities, the shelves aren’t fully stocked either.

We live in a time of uncertainty, and consternation.

I’ve spent the past couple of days mulling over the differences between the two reports, and come up with the following:

1. One view is short-term and doesn’t have the benefit of seeing the number of delinquencies that are actually on the bank’s books.
2. Banks have been counseling their clients to stop paying their mortgages, before requesting a short-sale consideration.  This aspect of mortgage delinquencies does not get mentioned much, but talk to a seller who’s behind, and I bet you the bank may have recommended they stop paying their mortgage.
3. The number of short sales is increasing, and even though banks are much too slow in closing these sales, there is some improvement.  Some banks now actually seem motivated to work with the seller and their agent.
4. And, as the second article mentioned, the current loan modification and refinancing plan may help a bit, but not those who have lost their jobs.

A client, who has been waiting and watching the market for almost four years, asked me yesterday if I thought the timing was right to buy now. It’s always a difficult and dangerous question to answer. I’m not sure whether house prices have bottomed, although there are indications that they have. I do know that another client was complaining about interest rates going up, which has an impact, by reducing buying power.

Whether there is, or isn’t, another tsunami of foreclosures remains to be seen. If there is, banks will continue to price them according to the market, which at this point appears to be stabilized, and if there aren’t, then we can all breathe a collective sigh of relief, while we continue to work towards a more balanced and sustainable real estate market.