Today, I’ve created some charts (with the help of Altos Research) to show the current differences in these varying markets.

Current median list price for South Scottsdale (85257) has dropped down to just over $200K. While the area just north of downtown Scottsdale (85250), the median listing price is now running about $375K.  The area around McCormick, Gainey, and Scottsdale Ranches (85258) has not see a drop in listing price.  To the north, where DC and McDowell Mountain Ranches are located in zip code 85255, median listing prices have hovered right around the $1 million dollar range.

In this next chart, you can see that in all areas have really experienced a reduction in price, if you look at it from a median price per square foot basis.  South Scottsdale has taken the brunt of this depreciation.

Although the northern part of Scottsdale has kept its listing prices high, inventory has actually increased slightly, where as in the other zip codes to the south, fewer homes are now available for sale. 

Finally, pricing really does have an impact on how long it takes to sell a home.  As you can see here, in 85255 and 85258, it is taking longer and longer to sell a home.  However, in downtown and South Scottsdale, you are seeing a plateauing of days on market, or the number of days it takes to sell a home.

Scottsdale’s real estate market has not been as impacted by foreclosures as many of the other areas around Phoenix.  Also, the majority of the homes on the market in north Scottsdale do not qualify for FHA financing or fall into the jumbo loan category, and with the tightened mortgage market, there has been an impact, resulting in a slower market. 

Move-up buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what is going to change.  However, once there’s an increased level on confidence in the real estate market and our economy, I do think that we will see an increased number of home sales.  Owners who purchased prior to the market run up, with equity in their homes, will decide that selling their current home in today’s market will give them the opportunity to buy up.  Lower home prices and the lowest interest rates in years will drive this change.  It’s bound to happen, it’s just a matter of when.

The following graphs show the number of new listings vs. the number of absorbed listings for Cave Creek, Chandler, Fountain Hills, Gilbert, Mesa, Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Queen Creek, Scottsdale, and Surprise.  Results vary in these communities, but all are showing that absorbed listings are about equal to or exceeding new listings coming on the market. Some are showing more positive trends, and it’s very interesting to see the differences between these valleywide Phoenix cities and towns.

The same trend is holding for condos, although the shift occurred slightly earlier, in the May time frame.

A bit of positive news for sellers, and a reminder to buyers that this heavily favored buyer’s market will not last forever.

Today’s Altos Research reports show that my experience is pretty much in alignment with the rest of the Scottsdale real estate market. Altos has a proprietary formula, called the Market Action Index, which they use to monitor the market.  If the figure is above 30, it’s a seller’s market.  Below 30 is a buyers’ market. 

Scottsdale has been hovering in the 9-16 range for most of the summer, from mid-March through the end of July.  Beginning in August the market action started taking off, most significantly in the first quadrant of housing, which is the highest 25% priced homes on the market.  You can see that there’s significant improvement for all price ranges, with the lowest 25% of homes on the market leading the pack.

I did some further digging and have discovered that in South Scottsdale, the entry level of the market is doing VERY well.  I know from personal experience that there is very little inventory in the lower price ranges, and that homes in good condition, priced well, are selling quickly.  Last week, one of my clients lost out on a house with multiple offers. The house was on the market three days.  Excellent condition. Priced very well. 

The chart above represents market activity for entry level homes in the four most southern Scottsdale zip codes, 85257, 85251, 85250, 85258.  As you can see, entry level homes in 85257 (southernmost Scottsdale) and 85258 (McCormick Ranch) are seeing significant improvement, and we are approaching a much more balanced market in these areas.

Looking a bit more closely at the entry level home market in 85257, you can see that market activity has jumped as median home listing prices have dropped.  Three bedroom, 2 bath homes are now listed in this area under $200,000.  First time home owners and investors are back in the market.

We are approaching our fall months, where in years past we experience our second busiest home selling season of the year.  From the looks of things, I’d suggest that we are positioned for a great market for home buyers, where interest rates and home prices are still low.  It’s important to know that as the number of homes for sale continues to drop, selection will become more limited, and there will be more competition for homes that are priced well for their condition and location. This competition will determine where the bottom of the market is.  If you are a buyer, thinking about a purchase, please talk to your lender to see what loan programs are available, so you are ready to make your offer when you find a home. 

I do believe that this fall will be much more active, and that we’ll be seeing continued improvement in the Scottsdale real estate market.  For a real-time real estate update in your Scottsdale zip code, check out the up-to-date market report (Real Estate Statistics for Scottsdale 852xx) just to the right of this column.

Stay tuned. 

• Median home list prices are rising.
• The number of houses on the market is decreasing.
• The time to sell is also decreasing.

Still a buyer’s market, but for how long, as we head into the prime time season of great weather and winter visitors.

Call or email me if you’d like the compete report.

From the Arizona Republic today, Housing market reflects positives:

“Homes priced under $350,000 are selling much quicker than the rest of the market. An analysis from Jim Sexton, president of real-estate firm John Hall & Associates, shows there is only a seven-month supply of homes in that lower range. That’s a healthy level.”

Yesterday, I showed single family homes priced under $250,000.  In the morning, I was in South Scottsdale.  Of the ten homes, I tried to set up appointments for, three were already under contract.  In the afternoon, I was with another client in Mesa.  Of the four homes that I was planning to show, only two were still available.  And at one of the homes on our list, we ended up waiting for another agent who was already at the house showing it to his clients.  It’s been over a year since I’ve bumped into an agent showing the same property at the same time.

Showings.  Offers.  Contracts.  Sales.

That’s what we need and that’s what we are seeing in the lower price ranges in the market.

Interestingly enough, with the huge range of prices in Scottsdale, there’s not all that much difference in how long it’s taking for a house to sell.  The chart below is busy, but will give you the basic information.

1.  Time to sell has definitely increased significantly in the past year.

2. Regardless of where you live in Scottsdale, it’s taking approximately 3-4 months (median value) to sell a house, except in the northernmost area of the city (Desert Mountain and the surrounding areas), where 6 months is closer to the norm.

Scottsdale Zip Code Map

Remember that the zip code 85266 in North Scottsdale is new as of July 2007, so the tracking data has taken a while to correct, as home owners and their agents shifted to the new code.