Today, I’ve created some charts (with the help of Altos Research) to show the current differences in these varying markets.

Current median list price for South Scottsdale (85257) has dropped down to just over $200K. While the area just north of downtown Scottsdale (85250), the median listing price is now running about $375K.  The area around McCormick, Gainey, and Scottsdale Ranches (85258) has not see a drop in listing price.  To the north, where DC and McDowell Mountain Ranches are located in zip code 85255, median listing prices have hovered right around the $1 million dollar range.

In this next chart, you can see that in all areas have really experienced a reduction in price, if you look at it from a median price per square foot basis.  South Scottsdale has taken the brunt of this depreciation.

Although the northern part of Scottsdale has kept its listing prices high, inventory has actually increased slightly, where as in the other zip codes to the south, fewer homes are now available for sale. 

Finally, pricing really does have an impact on how long it takes to sell a home.  As you can see here, in 85255 and 85258, it is taking longer and longer to sell a home.  However, in downtown and South Scottsdale, you are seeing a plateauing of days on market, or the number of days it takes to sell a home.

Scottsdale’s real estate market has not been as impacted by foreclosures as many of the other areas around Phoenix.  Also, the majority of the homes on the market in north Scottsdale do not qualify for FHA financing or fall into the jumbo loan category, and with the tightened mortgage market, there has been an impact, resulting in a slower market. 

Move-up buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what is going to change.  However, once there’s an increased level on confidence in the real estate market and our economy, I do think that we will see an increased number of home sales.  Owners who purchased prior to the market run up, with equity in their homes, will decide that selling their current home in today’s market will give them the opportunity to buy up.  Lower home prices and the lowest interest rates in years will drive this change.  It’s bound to happen, it’s just a matter of when.

For more information on this condo and its surrounding location, please visit www.9420Purdue.com.

A view of this move-in ready condo:

And photos of the beautiful green grounds:

Reasons for Optimism

Price

The area within the 85257 zip code has the most affordable homes in Scottsdale. Most qualify for FHA financing, and first time home buyers have been purchasing here. Investors are also beginning to see options that provide for a positive cash flow when renting.

Location

Close proximity to ASU and Sky Harbor Airport. Close to the night life of downtown Scottsdale, too.

Neighborhoods

Many of the neighborhoods in South Scottsdale have a strong sense of community, with a blend of long-term and newer owners.

Recreation

With the Indian Bend wash running through the zip code, access for biking, running, and walking are close by. Fishing in the city lakes is available. So is a nearby skate park. And the new Senior Center is another draw for some resident. The zoo and desert botanical gardens are also a 10 minutes drive.

Transportation

The free trolley runs in and around this southern most zip code in Scottsdale. Some use it to get to work, or to downtown Scottsdale, or even to connect to the Tempe transportation system.

Shopping

Old Town Scottsdale, Fashion Square, and the new Tempe Marketplace provide a unique blend of established and new shopping options and are within easy driving distance.

Schools

Scottsdale public schools are among the best in the state. Several elementary schools, Supai Middle School, and Coronado High School, all reside in the 85257 zip code. Scottsdale community college is nearby, as is Arizona State University.

Home Prices Today

Comparing Median Home List Prices in Scottsdale to 85257

Median home listing price in Scottsdale is currently about $775,000, while in this southern zip code of Scottsdale, it’s closer to $260,000.

Comparing Average Days on Market in Scottsdale to 85257

As a whole, it’s taking much longer to sell a home in Scottsdale, somewhere in the range of 175 days, while in 85257, the days on market has stayed in the 100-110 day range for over six months.

Median Homes Prices by Price Range

To see if any one price range of homes was doing better than another, I broke down the list pricing into quartiles, and you can see that home prices have been falling steadily in all price ranges.

Days on Market by Price Range

I did the same breakdown again for average days on market. Most price ranges have tracked in a similar manner, with some variations during the year. At this point, the lowest price housing has been on the market, the fewest number of days, averaging about 95 days since the first of September.

Scottsdale 85257’s Most Expensive Homes

Scottsdale 85257′s most expensive homes are now listed at a median price of just under $350,000. Average days to sell has been steadily increasing to an average of 120 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Mid to Higher Priced Homes

Scottsdale 85257′s second quartile of mid to higher price homes (the 2nd quartile) homes are clearly dropping in price while taking significantly long to sell. Median price of these homes is now approximately $280,000, while increasing to a high of 135 days on market and recently dropping back to an average of 120 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Lower to Mid Priced Homes

Listing prices are also dropping steadily in Scottsdale 85257 homes priced in the 3rd quartile. Median listing price here is $240,000. Average number of days to sell has increased to an average of approximately 112 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Lowest Priced Homes

Median price in the lowest priced quadrant are now under $200,000 for the first time in a very long time. The really good news is that days on market is dropping too, and this number has been under 100 days since late summer.

Positive Changes for South Scottsdale

So as I shared earlier, there’s a glimmer of hope. It’s difficult to say when we will see pricing stabilize, but I would suspect that it come sooner for these entry level homes in South Scottsdale, than it will in other parts of the city. This southernmost area has so much going for it. It will be much easier for a positive change in the market to occur here, so we will need to keep an eye on this area and report back in a couple months.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, please leave a comment or call.

Scottsdale Homes Sold in 2008 for $100k or less

Here are a few of the details:

Most of the condos and townhouses are in Belcara at McCormick Ranch (85258) and Woodland Springs (85251), with others in Ciento, Rancho Antiguia, Summerfield, Hallcraft Villas, and Quail Point.

As of today, three homes listed at $100,000 or less are under contract, and 48 more are on the market.  The average time to sell since the beginning of the year has been 110 days, but in looking at just the past three months, the average has dropped to 74 days.  Still, we have a significant inventory in this price range.

Prices for single family homes are starting at $121,000 today.  In my next market report, I’ll focus on the homes price between $100,000 and $200,000, since that is where most first-time home buyers are looking.

Bank of America, which last summer bought the nation’s largest subprime lender, Countrywide, has suspended foreclosure notices pending against nearly 2,000 homes across the Valley in the past week in an effort to help homeowners hold on to their property. And relief for even more homeowners is expected to follow.

Read the rest of the story at Bank of America agrees to halt 2,000 foreclosures in the Valley.

I’ve been working with a steady stream of buyers this year, and have shown a lot of homes and sold a good number.  Some are short sales, others are foreclosures, and the remainder are owners selling because it’s time.  Everyone is impacted by our current real estate market, so taking sometime to slowdown the foreclosures in the Phoenix area and possibly come up with some alternative actions is a positive one.

Call or email if you’d like to take a look at it.