I can count on this question in every listing appointment. And the short answer is, “Depends”.

Depends on:

• Where your house is located
• How you price it
• What kind of condition it’s in
• And a host of other external factors that buyers and sellers don’t have direct input into, like interest rates, tax incentives, consumer confidence, …..

Today, I’ve pulled some Altos Research housing data, to show you how long homes have been listed for sale in Scottsdale.  In this first chart, for the whole of Scottsdale, you can see that number of days on the market peaked in July and has started a steady downward trend.

However, we all know that real estate is local, so I’ve done a quick comparison of the Median Days on Market for several Scottsdale zip codes.

First, from the southernmost part of the city, Scottsdale 85257, time to sell a house didn’t start decreasing until the September.

In Scottsdale 85258, where McCormick and Gainey Ranches are located, Days on Market matched the same pattern as the City of Scottsdale and started decreasing in July.

The same trend is true for Scottsdale zip code 85255, home to McDowell Mountain and DC Ranches, as well as Grayhawk.

However, moving northward toward Carefree and Cave Creek, you can see that the zip code 85266, home to many luxury homes and the community of Terravita, the number of days to sell a house still has not peaked.

When it comes times to sell your home, you will want to look a lot closer at statistics in your neighborhood.  Some subdivisions sell much more quickly than others, so it’s imperative you have a good sense of what is going on close to home, as well as in the surrounding areas.  Armed with current and relevant data, you and your agent can then price your house to sell, know just how long it might take.

Related Links – More Scottsdale Real Estate Statistics

To take a look at what is going on currently (as of the day your are reading this post), you can look at the following reports for the city of Scottsdale and then for each Scottsdale zip code:

Scottsdale Real Estate Statistics – Single Family Homes

• 85262 – North Scottsdale including Desert Mountain, north of Jomax and east of Pima Road
• 85266 – North Scottsdale including Terravita, north of Jomax and west of Pima (new zip code as of 7/1/2007)
• 85255 – North Scottsdale, including DC Ranch, Grayhawk, and McDowell Mountain Ranch
• 85260 – North Scottsdale, between Shea Boulevard and Bell Road
• 85254 – Scottsdale address, but located in City of Phoenix. North of Shea and South of the aqueduct.
• 85259 – North Scottsdale, mostly east of 104th Street and west of Fountain Hills
• 85258 – Central Scottsdale, including McCormick Ranch and Gainey Ranch
• 85250 – Central Scottsdale, between Chaparral and Indian Bend Roads
• 85251 – Downtown / South Scottsdale, between Chaparral and Thomas Roads
• 85257 – South Scottsdale, south of Thomas Road to the Tempe border

Today, I’ve created some charts (with the help of Altos Research) to show the current differences in these varying markets.

Current median list price for South Scottsdale (85257) has dropped down to just over $200K. While the area just north of downtown Scottsdale (85250), the median listing price is now running about $375K.  The area around McCormick, Gainey, and Scottsdale Ranches (85258) has not see a drop in listing price.  To the north, where DC and McDowell Mountain Ranches are located in zip code 85255, median listing prices have hovered right around the $1 million dollar range.

In this next chart, you can see that in all areas have really experienced a reduction in price, if you look at it from a median price per square foot basis.  South Scottsdale has taken the brunt of this depreciation.

Although the northern part of Scottsdale has kept its listing prices high, inventory has actually increased slightly, where as in the other zip codes to the south, fewer homes are now available for sale. 

Finally, pricing really does have an impact on how long it takes to sell a home.  As you can see here, in 85255 and 85258, it is taking longer and longer to sell a home.  However, in downtown and South Scottsdale, you are seeing a plateauing of days on market, or the number of days it takes to sell a home.

Scottsdale’s real estate market has not been as impacted by foreclosures as many of the other areas around Phoenix.  Also, the majority of the homes on the market in north Scottsdale do not qualify for FHA financing or fall into the jumbo loan category, and with the tightened mortgage market, there has been an impact, resulting in a slower market. 

Move-up buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what is going to change.  However, once there’s an increased level on confidence in the real estate market and our economy, I do think that we will see an increased number of home sales.  Owners who purchased prior to the market run up, with equity in their homes, will decide that selling their current home in today’s market will give them the opportunity to buy up.  Lower home prices and the lowest interest rates in years will drive this change.  It’s bound to happen, it’s just a matter of when.

Listing prices appear to be stabilizing. Time to sell is definitely still on the rise.  When you look at the percentage comparisons, there’s another story. Median listing prices are $25,000 from two years ago, which equates to about a 3% drop.  Then, you look at the median number of days a listing has been on the market, and you see that its a 15-fold increase, from 10 days to 160.  What does that say?

The number of listings being absorbed (sold or taken off the market) is down, way down. 

I tend to post mostly positive news about the market, which means that I’ve been pretty quiet lately.   I’d like to make some comments about what’s going on, but this two year history is pretty telling and pretty much says it for itself.

Reasons for Optimism

Price

The area within the 85257 zip code has the most affordable homes in Scottsdale. Most qualify for FHA financing, and first time home buyers have been purchasing here. Investors are also beginning to see options that provide for a positive cash flow when renting.

Location

Close proximity to ASU and Sky Harbor Airport. Close to the night life of downtown Scottsdale, too.

Neighborhoods

Many of the neighborhoods in South Scottsdale have a strong sense of community, with a blend of long-term and newer owners.

Recreation

With the Indian Bend wash running through the zip code, access for biking, running, and walking are close by. Fishing in the city lakes is available. So is a nearby skate park. And the new Senior Center is another draw for some resident. The zoo and desert botanical gardens are also a 10 minutes drive.

Transportation

The free trolley runs in and around this southern most zip code in Scottsdale. Some use it to get to work, or to downtown Scottsdale, or even to connect to the Tempe transportation system.

Shopping

Old Town Scottsdale, Fashion Square, and the new Tempe Marketplace provide a unique blend of established and new shopping options and are within easy driving distance.

Schools

Scottsdale public schools are among the best in the state. Several elementary schools, Supai Middle School, and Coronado High School, all reside in the 85257 zip code. Scottsdale community college is nearby, as is Arizona State University.

Home Prices Today

Comparing Median Home List Prices in Scottsdale to 85257

Median home listing price in Scottsdale is currently about $775,000, while in this southern zip code of Scottsdale, it’s closer to $260,000.

Comparing Average Days on Market in Scottsdale to 85257

As a whole, it’s taking much longer to sell a home in Scottsdale, somewhere in the range of 175 days, while in 85257, the days on market has stayed in the 100-110 day range for over six months.

Median Homes Prices by Price Range

To see if any one price range of homes was doing better than another, I broke down the list pricing into quartiles, and you can see that home prices have been falling steadily in all price ranges.

Days on Market by Price Range

I did the same breakdown again for average days on market. Most price ranges have tracked in a similar manner, with some variations during the year. At this point, the lowest price housing has been on the market, the fewest number of days, averaging about 95 days since the first of September.

Scottsdale 85257’s Most Expensive Homes

Scottsdale 85257′s most expensive homes are now listed at a median price of just under $350,000. Average days to sell has been steadily increasing to an average of 120 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Mid to Higher Priced Homes

Scottsdale 85257′s second quartile of mid to higher price homes (the 2nd quartile) homes are clearly dropping in price while taking significantly long to sell. Median price of these homes is now approximately $280,000, while increasing to a high of 135 days on market and recently dropping back to an average of 120 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Lower to Mid Priced Homes

Listing prices are also dropping steadily in Scottsdale 85257 homes priced in the 3rd quartile. Median listing price here is $240,000. Average number of days to sell has increased to an average of approximately 112 days.

Scottsdale 85257’s Lowest Priced Homes

Median price in the lowest priced quadrant are now under $200,000 for the first time in a very long time. The really good news is that days on market is dropping too, and this number has been under 100 days since late summer.

Positive Changes for South Scottsdale

So as I shared earlier, there’s a glimmer of hope. It’s difficult to say when we will see pricing stabilize, but I would suspect that it come sooner for these entry level homes in South Scottsdale, than it will in other parts of the city. This southernmost area has so much going for it. It will be much easier for a positive change in the market to occur here, so we will need to keep an eye on this area and report back in a couple months.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, please leave a comment or call.

Interestingly enough, with the huge range of prices in Scottsdale, there’s not all that much difference in how long it’s taking for a house to sell.  The chart below is busy, but will give you the basic information.

1.  Time to sell has definitely increased significantly in the past year.

2. Regardless of where you live in Scottsdale, it’s taking approximately 3-4 months (median value) to sell a house, except in the northernmost area of the city (Desert Mountain and the surrounding areas), where 6 months is closer to the norm.

Scottsdale Zip Code Map

Remember that the zip code 85266 in North Scottsdale is new as of July 2007, so the tracking data has taken a while to correct, as home owners and their agents shifted to the new code.

However in most Scottsdale zip codes, the prices increases are seen in the upper 25% of the price range.  In the following charts, the first group is defined as lowest 25% priced homes and increase up to the fourth quadrant which includes the highest 25% priced homes.

The time that it takes to sell a home is still increasing, and overall shows no sign of tapering off. 

However, when the data is broken down by home price, it’s easy to see that the lower priced end of the market may be showing some signs of relief.

And then finally, the number of homes being sold has improved since last summer, but shows some signs of tapering off.

As would be expected, homes in the lower price ranges are selling at a higher and more consistent pace, than the upper end of the Scottsdale real estate market.

Scottsdale has weathered the real estate market changes better than many other Phoenix metropolitan cities.  I think it will be interesting to see where the next couple months take us.  As always, comment, email, or call, if you have any questions, or would like more detail. 

 The number of days it is taking to sell a home continues to increase.