by Dru Bloomfield on May 6, 2009
photo credit: quinn.anya
Just in. The title of the Newsweek article is : Want to Sell Your Home, Lower Your Price
And it gives Scottsdale some press that may not be the best, but to me, it’s a sign that Scottsdale is now on its way to recovery too. Prices will need to drop quite a bit more to catch up to the rest of the Phoenix metropolitan area, but it’s good to be out of limbo.
Topping the list:
BusinessWeek.com teamed up with Trulia.com to rank the nation’s largest cities with the most discounted homes. Topping the list was affluent Scottsdale, Ariz., where 37% of listings have had at least one reduction and the average discount is 12.9% off the original asking price.
And then:
Of course, a reduced price isn’t always a bargain. The owner might not have dropped the price enough or might be lowering it because of some other reason (maybe the house is just plain ugly).
It’s worth reading the whole article. Falling prices are scary, or they are an opportunity. It just depends whether you selling, or buying. And something tells me, that buyers are going to be spending just a little bit more time figuring out where they’d like to live in Scottsdale.
by Dru Bloomfield on March 9, 2009
photo credit: Dru Bloomfield – At Home in Scottsdale
I’ve been pretty quiet on the blog-front this past month and a half. However, it’s been six weeks of massive action, and an introduction to the world of bank-owned (REO) properties, where the majority of home buying and selling appears to be occurring in the Phoenix metropolitan real estate market.
Last year, most of my business was in Scottsdale. In the past, I’ve worked in a much broader area, and this year will be similar. I currently have homes listed all over the Valley of the Sun, and about 75% of them are foreclosures, priced at $200,000 and under.
Our market has changed, and, in my opinion, Scottsdale is out of sync. Granted, it’s a unique city, land-locked, with many beautiful homes. Foreclosures are few and far between. Short sales are becoming much more common. However, as a whole, it’s not a moving market.
While home sales demand is increasing in Phoenix, Glendale, Mesa, and Goodyear, in Scottsdale it’s decreasing.
Click for full-size view of Scottsdale real estate supply demand graph
And, supply, or the number of homes on the market, is increasing.
Click for full-size view of Scottsdale real estate supply index graph
And when you look at the appreciation rates, comparing the City of Phoenix with Scottsdale, you can see that Scottsdale has experienced a much lower rate of depreciation, appearing to bottom out at about 20%. In Phoenix, the depreciation is much greater hovering at 40%.
Click chart for full-size view of Scottsdale vs. Phoenix Home Appreciation / Depreciation Rates
So, I’ve been pondering the reason that Scottsdale is experiencing a different real estate market. Do you think it’s because:
- Fewer number of foreclosures in the city, and many buyers are only looking at bank-owned properties, thinking they will get a better deal.
- Reluctance of Scottsdale home sellers to reduce home listing prices to incent on-the-fence buyers to make a buying decision.
- First time home buyers are looking to other communities where they can buy a larger and newer house for the same price.
- A trend towards smaller is better.
- Challenges in getting a jumbo loan (greater than $417K)
- General uncertainty and conservatism in spending.
I’m curious. What do you think?
by Dru Bloomfield on January 2, 2009
Scottsdale home condo are starting out 2009 in a real estate market that is tilted in their favor. Not quite to the extent that single family homes are, but none the less, a buyer’s market.
In the following charts, I’ve shown prices for both 2007 and 2008. Listing prices started dropping off in fall 2007, and continued until mid-summer of 2008. After a sharp increase in the fall, list prices are now comparable to the same time last year.
Median List Price Comparison 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)
What is clear is that even with the declining prices, average time to sell is still climbing steadily.
Days on Market Comparison 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)
Inventory (the number of homes on the market) grew in 2007, with a small fluctuation in late summer / early fall. While inventory continued to increase in 2008, the same late summer fluctuation was evident.
Condo Inventory Comparison 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)
Finally, you will see that while the Scottsdale area approached a more balanced market in the spring of 2007, it quickly changed into a very strong buyer’s market. That buyer’s market has continued through 2007 and 2008. In the early fall, it appeared that the market was improving, but that trend has been short-lived.
Condo Market Action 2007-2008 (Click to see larger chart)
We shall see what changes the new year brings.
See yesterday’s post for the single family home report.
Definition of the Market Action Index, courtesy of Altos Research:
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller’s Market” (a.k.a. “Hot Market”) because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a “Buyer’s Market” (a.k.a. “Cold Market”) where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.
by Dru Bloomfield on August 30, 2008
It’s still hot in Scottsdale. Yet, buyer interest is up. My email box is filling up, my phone is ringing, and I’m seeing more open house signs out on the weekend. In a few more weeks, and we will be heading straight into the fall home selling season, typically the second busiest time of the year, and I can only imagine that buyer interest will continue to increase.
I posted a quick look at the Scottsdale zip code 85258 earlier this week on my McCormick Ranch blog. In this part of Scottsdale, we are still in a buyer’s market, but there are fewer homes for sale, and homes are selling faster. All good news, so stay tuned.
by Dru Bloomfield on August 27, 2008
Here’s a pleasant surprise in my weekly report from Altos Research for Scottsdale, Arizona 85258. McCormick Ranch and Gainey Ranch are two of the major communities in this zip code.
- Median home list prices are rising.
- The number of houses on the market is decreasing.
- The time to sell is also decreasing.
Still a buyer’s market, but for how long, as we head into the prime time season of great weather and winter visitors.
Click on the chart to get the Executive Summary. Call or email me if you’d like the compete report.
by Dru Bloomfield on July 9, 2008
Home prices in Scottsdale vary widely, and follow a pattern of more affordable in the south, to more expensive in the northern most communities. For home buyers moving to the area, it’s eye opening to see just how many different price ranges of homes there are in a town that seems to be known for it’s exclusivity. In reality, there are homes that are quite affordable for first time home buyers.
From these next two charts, you’ll see that the farther north you go, the newer and larger the homes get.
What I think most Scottsdale home buyers will find very interesting is that when you narrow down and look at price per square foot, the differences between the various communities within Scottsdale do vary, but not nearly as much as one would expect when looking at listing prices.
Data Source: Altos Research Reports, July 7, 2008
Related Links:
Phoenix – Scottsdale Zip Code Map
Scottsdale Real Estate Inventory Update
Weekly Scottsdale Real Estate Report
