Huge gains in the Phoenix real estate market this year.

Monthly median sales price for the first week of the year was $118,700. And in the 20th week of the year, just four short months later, the median sales price is $142,500.

That’s a 20% increase!  In four months.

If you look at the point where the pricing surge began, which was the last week of February (Week 8), and compute the increase over the next 12 weeks, you’ll see that the rate of appreciation is 18.75%. Then, multiplying that rate by 4, to get a projected annualized rate, you get a fantastic, and unsustainable increase of 75%.

Yesterday, the Cromford Report shared the following perspective:

Prices very rarely go up at this phenomenal rate for an extended period of time. They need an occasional rest to let the rest of the world (especially appraisers) catch up. However, supply has not improved, so the upward pressure building under prices is still strong.

However, cash purchases continue to play a strong role in the current rate of appreciation, with about 40% of all homes being purchased with cash.

And, the number of homes on market continues to dwindle, especially when compared to the number of homes being sold.

Buyers are scrambling. Equity owner are considering selling. Offers before the home is listed, and multiple offers are the order of the day.

One thing about Phoenix real estate, it’s always changing.  And, it’s never boring!

More on the current state of the Phoenix real estate market:

• Yes, the real estate market is crazy in Phoenix. Again.
• Phoenix Real Estate Update: “Absolute positive signs of what’s happening on the price front”
• Severe shortage of homes for sale in Phoenix

In the City of Phoenix, it’s very clear that prices are on the rise, with annual appreciation based on the monthly average of price per square foot, rising from almost –20% in June 2011 to +20 in April 2012.  That’s a 40% improvement!

Mesa has improved from the negative to the positive also, with current appreciation rates bouncing between 5 and 15% annually.

Tempe is showing huge gains, too. With prices steadily improving from almost –30% in February 2011 to about 15% currently.

Chandler is also on the rise, showing annual appreciation of over 20% in the past year.

However, the picture is not so clear in Scottsdale. In 2011, the market jumped from negative to positive appreciation twice! And has continued to improve for the early months of 2012. While the gains are almost as striking as the nearby cities, it’s not a consistent improvement, and has dropped off in the second quarter.

So, while appreciation in Scottsdale remains slightly positive, it still has not reached the double digit improvements seen nearby.  So, essentially, it looks like there’s an opportunity for researching and investing in the Scottsdale real market while it lags behind.  I’ll clearly state that I have no idea what the futures holds, but it is possible that Scottsdale homes will begin to see appreciation that other cities in Metro Phoenix have already experienced. Prices were slower to drop in Scottsdale, so it is quite possible that they’ll be slower to rebound.

More on Scottsdale and Phoenix real estate:

• Yes, the real estate market is crazy in Phoenix. Again.
• Phoenix Real Estate Update: “Absolute positive signs of what’s happening on the price front”
• Scottsdale Real Estate Update: “I only want to buy a short sale or a foreclosure”

We have been seeing a steady stream of positive headlines over the past couple weeks, proclaiming that the Phoenix real estate market is leading the national real estate recovery.

Rise in Phoenix Housing Shows Path for Other Cities 

As home prices continue to drop in most cities, a nascent real-estate rebound here holds lessons for the rest of the country.

Top 10 markets for rising list prices 

Phoenix tops the list at #1 with 23.45% increase in median listing price over the past year.

Home prices in Phoenix area up 20 percent in past 12 months

Home prices are surging in metro Phoenix, climbing 8 percent in March alone and 20 percent in the past 12 months.

Phoenix tops Zillow list

According to Zillow, the Phoenix area is expected to experience a 6.5 percent increase in median home price in 2013 compared with the current year.

Investors making offers ‘sight unseen’ in Phoenix housing market

With low inventory, getting offers on their home is easy. It’s finding serious buyers that’s been hard, especially when dealing with out of town investors.

And it’s the serious buyers, the owner-occupants, who have been getting squeezed out of the market. Several of my serious, pre-qualified buyer clients have just thrown their hands up in the air and said they’d check back in with me later. 

They are tired of:

• Low inventory, with the homes that are priced well and in good condition getting many, many offers.
• Short sales, where they have to wait for months and months to get an answer.
• Making an offer based on market value, so that the appraisal will be high enough and they won’t have to bring extra cash to closing, only to get beat out by a cash buyer who is waiving the appraisal, the inspection, and accepting the house in As-Is condition.

Yes, the real estate market is crazy in Phoenix.  Again. Is it healthy? Hum. Is it sustainable? Not sure, but hope so.

I do know there’s a tremendous pent-up demand for home buyers, and that anyone who’s considering selling their house, will find that they are once again in the driver’s seat. 

Please, if you are considering selling your home, please call me or one many other qualified agents in Scottsdale and Phoenix Metro area.  We can help you price and sell your home in today’s seller’s market.  And, connect you with buyers who are anxious to own and live in your property. As we head into the hot months of summer, your timing will be very important, so do call if you are serious about selling your home.

Here’s the answer to a question that I get asked periodically? “Where are Canadians buyer buying homes in Phoenix?”

The chart above shows the answer by both number and price range.

Very interesting to note the higher density of clusters in Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Carefree, Surprise, Chandler and Mesa. Higher priced homes are predominately found in Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Carefree.

If you have questions about a specific neighborhood, I can search the tax records and get some sense of the number of homes owned by Canadians in a specific subdivision. Let me know if I can help.

Selling real estate means that I focus a lot on knowing about the city I live in, the local neighborhoods, events, and businesses, besides keeping up on all the latest real estate prices, rules and regulations, technology, and yes, even social media.

It’s a plateful.

One of the unique aspects of real estate is that agents are competing for the same business, while collaborating on the actual transaction. 

We compete, and then we work together. All for the success of our clients.

And to stay competitive, real estate agents are in a continual learning mode.  Conferences. Classes. Coaches.

One of the most fulfilling real estate learning events that I’ve participated in is called a Bar Camp.  It’s really an un-conference.  Free.  Interested people show up, and then decide what they’re going to talk about that day.  It’s really fascinating to see the organic nature of the free form process as the day unfolds.

I attended my first Bar Camp in San Francisco four years ago, and it made a huge and lasting impression on me.

Participants share.  Listen. Learn. And create new, and lasting relationships.

Yesterday, was the 4th annual Phoenix Real Estate Bar Camp.  The 4th year it’s been held at the Scottsdale Stadium (spring training home to the San Francisco Giants).  The 4th year that the fundamentally same group of organizers have been involved.

This year the number of participants was smaller, than the close to 400 we’ve had attending in the past. More focused. And most agents stayed all day, creating an intimate, collaborative, learning environment.  Topics included short sales, on-line marketing, video, social media, and much, much more.

It was a fabulous day that ended up with some socializing at the Salty Senorita, just down the street in downtown Scottsdale.

Several years ago, I wrote the following note to myself at a social networking event.

"It’s all about building community"

True for anyone who is involved in business today. 

On-line.

In-person.

It’s the connections that we build and maintain that create our partners, our businesses, our communities, and our cities.

As a person, and as a Realtor, I take this thought to heart. It’s the basis on my business. Many of my colleagues agree, too. And, as a result, our clients benefit greatly.

So, I’d like to share a few photos of the day, so you can get a feel for the community that was built and enhanced during the 4th Phoenix Real Estate Bar Camp.

Old friends reconnecting.

Scheduling the day on the fly.

Rapt attention for one of the more technical discussions.

A quick on-the-fly after-session.

The day always ends at the bar (“Bar Camp”)!

The organizers.

More photos  from the 4th annual Phoenix Real Estate Bar Camp – from my Facebook Photo Album

Feel free to Friend me on Facebook, or slip on over to my At Home in Scottsdale real estate page and Like me, so you stay up-to-date on the latest local real estate information.

Listen to Jim Sexton, Designated Broker of Realty One Group, share his real estate market insights for March 2012.

Some of his notable quotes:

• “Hot, hot, hot”
• “I could sell houses if I could find them, if they were on the market”
• “2 months supply of inventory”
• “Look for a continued strong market”
• “Absolute positive signs of what’s happening on the price front”
• Prices increased significantly in March

Recent updates on the Phoenix and Scottsdale real estate markets:

• Severe shortage of homes for sale in Phoenix
• Phoenix Real Estate Appraisers Having a Hard Time Keeping Up with Appreciating Home Prices
• Yes, It’s a Seller’s Market in Phoenix Real Estate

I had two phone call back-to-back this week.  Both potential buyers said that they only wanted to look at short sales and foreclosures Scottsdale.

While I tried to explain the realities of the current Scottsdale real estate market, I don’t think that buyers understand just how few houses are for sale, and how many buyers are competing for this limited inventory.  And that by eliminating 75% of the properties for sale, buyers are going to be challenged to find and win the bidding war for this limited pool of homes.

That’s not to say that it can’t be done. Or that it will be easy.

But, I do think buyers needs to know the facts about our real estate market.

Housing inventory in Scottsdale has dropped by 50% over the past 2 years.

Appreciation is now in the positive ranges, approaching 8% in late March.

Buyer are anxious to get in the market. With about 50% of the buyers paying cash, the appraisal contingency is no longer in play, and many of those buyers are more willing to go over the listing price. Buyers who assume that they can offer less, because they are paying cash, are not up-to-date on the current realities of the market.

So, if you want to buy a house in Scottsdale, I recommend that you look at all the properties that are on the market. Then, write a very strong offer when you find the house you want.

For more on getting your offer accepted in Scottsdale’s competitive real estate market, read:  Ten Ways to Get an Offer Accepted