What a way to start the year on a positive note!
Here’s the latest Phoenix real estate market update from the Cromford Report:
- Except above $800,000, sales prices in $/SF are now higher than a year ago.
- Inventory is falling again for all price ranges.
- Above $400,000 demand remains relatively weak.
- Lender-owned inventory is still falling and REOs are losing market share in sales.
- Active short sales are fewer in number, with normal listings gaining market share.
And more specifically, by price range:
- Homes under $100,000 – Low supply conditions heavily influencing the market. Sales prices are now 6.9% higher than last year.
- Homes Between $100,000 and $200,000 - Supply and demand both move lower. Pricing is still moving up.
- Homes Between $200,000 and $400,000 – Supply has fallen and sales are perking up. Pricing remains extremely stable.
- Homes Between $400,000 and $800,000 – Supply is down but demand not very strong. Prices stable.
- Homes over $800,000 – Supply has stopped growing but demand remains weak. Prices remain remarkably stable.
For the full report, click here: The Cromford Report™ – Monthly Market Review – Dec 28, 2011
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Dru, absolutely fascinating.
However – oh, we know…
Artur has another very interesting chart from Cromford, that shows the foreclosure sales over the last few year, and who bought them. What that shows U.S. is that there has been a massive shift from banks buying their own foreclosures, and “all cash sales” to non- banks.
Dru, some of that might be BKofA dumping “foreclosures” to raise the cash they have been told they must, to avoid being taken over by The Regulators.
As Mike points out in this report, the number of REOs is way down. But, with banks NOT buying their own foreclosures, that was expected. And, if the banks don’t buy them, they never become REOs.
What the chart suggests is that “all cash investors” are now buying IN foreclosure sales and NOT from the MLS.
Two points: first, what they buy IN foreclosure are probably the least expensive homes. So, the “bottom feeders” never show up in MLS or Cromford’s sales. They are long gone before they ever get there. And, so the supply of the least expensive home APPEARS to have dropped, but it might not have. Only shifted from MLS over to IN foreclosure sales.
Second, and so, the only thing left for the banks to buy are the more expensive – ie, the higher priced per sq ft homes. And, therefore the MLS’s foreclosure listing simply HAVE to go up, in price, a lot.
They really haven’t…, only what we SEE still there looks like it.
Oh, we know, we are such pessimists.
For example, from your picture you simply could not be as much fun as you appear to be:)
JG, Thanks for taking the time to weigh in on your perspective.
I remember the first day of a Statistics course I took many years ago. The professor said, “You can make numbers say anything.” I try to be as objective as I can be, without going overboard.
I do have the advantage of being on the front lines and taking the pulse of the buyers and sellers in today’s market. I will tell you that it’s a whole new ball game. Consumer confidence, or lack there of, plays an integral role in the timing of what many are calling recovery.
I do have another Mike Orr chart I’ll have to show you soon. I think you’ll like it, and then you can tell me where you think we are on the curve.