It’s been awhile since I checked out the Cromford Report stats for Scottsdale real estate. I think we are looking for some sign of sustainable, positive change, but for the most part, I think many would agree that holding steady is a welcomed change!
Depending on whether you look at short-term or long-term numbers, there are 9-11 months of inventory (properties for sale) in the city of Scottsdale.
The following definitions will help you see the difference between the short and long-term view:
Days Inventory Based on Annual Sales – The number of days it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last year.
Days Inventory Based on Monthly Sales – The number of days it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last month.
It’s important to look at both of these figures, because the monthly sales figures can be inflated or deflated depending on the time of year. For example, our numbers in November typically taper off, but this year, they were buoyed by the anticipated end of the 2009 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.
Moving on to look at Market Demand, you can see that the landscape is gradually improving. Supply is still a bit high. Demand is improving. But, overall the real estate sales environment in Scottsdale appears to be moving in a positive direction.
The definitions the indexes in the chart above are:
Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the demand position within the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a weakness in demand, while values above 100 indicate a stronger than normal demand. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Cromford Supply Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the supply position within the market. It is derived from the trends in active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a shortage of supply, while values above 100 indicate an excess supply. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Price per square foot is one of the truest indicators of home pricing. As you can see here, price continue to depreciate in Scottsdale, but the city has not been hit nearly as hard as many of the other parts of the Valley. Looking at the monthly averages, you can see that possibly we are at a plateau in average sales price per square foot.
I’d like to make a big conclusion about where are going from here, but for now I will just say "It is, what it is." One thing I do believe is that the worst is behind us.
Data Source: Arizona Regional MLS/ Cromford Report
{ 0 comments… add one now }