Have we hit bottom in the Scottsdale Real Estate Market?

by Dru Bloomfield on January 12, 2009

Saturday, I wrote about the overall increase in home sales in Phoenix, and promised to give you more detail. What I discovered in researching that blog post was that many cities in metropolitan Phoenix have been seeing these increases for months. I’m in the real estate business, I keep up on statistics fairly well around the valley, and I was somewhat surprised by what I learned.

This chart of Maricopa home sales per year was striking.  Did you realize there have been a record number of home sales in that city for the past several months? Granted many of the sales in the past have been for new homes, which may not have been posted in the Arizona Regional MLS, but the fact that homes are selling in the area, is very good news.

Click for a larger view

Click for a larger view

After stumbling across this first graph on the Cromford Report, I kept searching, wanting to get a feel for the current situation in the Valley of the Sun. 

Home Sales  Figures from Around the Valley

Anthem is not setting records, but you can see a definite trough in the the number of sales, and it occurred almost 12 months ago.

Click for larger graph

Click for larger graph

Many have made mention that we will not know we’ve hit bottom until it has passed, and it may take 6-8 months to see if the trend really takes hold. These charts do not take into account that prices have dropped significantly, or maybe they do, and that is why we are seeing homes selling at a good pace again.

Phoenix proper is seeing increased  sales.

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Click for larger view

So is Glendale…..

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Chandler, too.

Click for better view

Click for better view

In Tempe, we are starting to see what may be a bottom in home sales numbers. It will be interesting to see if the Light Rail system has any impact on real estate sales in the coming months.

Click for larger graph

Click for larger graph

Scottsdale is also showing signs of stabilizing.  We are just entering our crazy-busy season of events which bring large numbers of visitors to the city for Barrett-Jackson, the FBR Open, (formerly know as the Phoenix Open and now known for its one-of-a-kind 16th hole), art shows, horse shows, culminating in our baseball version of March Madness, in the form of Cactus League Spring Training.

Click for larger view

Click for larger view

We are at the beginning of a new year, with a lot of unknowns. Data shows a glimmer of hope. Interest rates are low. Home prices continue to fall, yet indications are that the lower end of the market is beginning to stabilize. Arizona is still the second fastest growing state in the nation.

2009 will be a very interesting year.

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