Scottsdale single family homes have been selling faster than new homes were listed for the past three months. We are beginning to see the increased activity that typically comes in the fall season, too. More homes are being listed, yet they are selling at a higher rate than they are coming onto the market.
The same trend is holding for condos, although the shift occurred slightly earlier, in the May time frame.
A bit of positive news for sellers, and a reminder to buyers that this heavily favored buyer’s market will not last forever.
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That swing up looks suspect and it happens right when the new MLS system kicked in.
Artur and Dru,
I can see how one might think that the upturn might be the result of the new MLS system, considering some of the issues we have faced with the conversion. But I would disagree with that conclusion.
Dru’s charts confirm trends we have seen in recent months, both locally and on a national level. ARMLS reported home sales per month have climbed steadily from January (2,912 units) to July (5,966 units, more than double), and in July passed the previous year’s number (4,730 in July 2007) for the first time since September 2005 (yes, three years ago). So this isn’t an anomaly on the sales side, just a continuation of the same trend.
New listings each month have been absolutely flat from February thru July (12,932 in Feb was the low and 13,678 in April was the high in this range). The net result of doubling units sold and flat lining new listings means the absorption rate is going up rapidly, as Dru’s graphs indicate.
Look at it another way. In February we listed 12,932 houses and sold 3,448. That’s 26.6%. In July we listed 13,484 and sold 5,966. That’s 44.2%. That kind of increase in sales activity when there’s no corresponding increase in listings added will decrease overall inventory, lower the number of months of supply that’s available and increase absorption rates accordingly.
This may not be the bottom we have been looking for, but it is definitely a trend in the right direction. Details on all these stats are posted at http://www.armls.com/stats.html. Hope that helps.
Bob,
I don’t doubt the numbers. The reality is in the streets with more pending and sold signs hanging on more homes and a lot more calls from both owner occupied buyers and investors locally, nationaly and international.
It was just a coincidence that, at least in Scottsdale, the sales jumped at the same time as the new MLS system went in.
Artur, Your comment was insightful and gave me reason to investigate a bit more. I’m going to be posting this same data for some various communities around the valley today. They are all a bit different, but do show some positive trends.
Bob, Thanks so much for sharing the latest in MLS data with us. Subjectively, it feels like the market has been improving, and your data validates what many of us are experiencing around the valley. Increased real estate sales.