Elliott D. Pollack provides some of the most extensive and easily understandable economic data for Arizona and the Phoenix metropolitan area. Some day, I’d like to hear the dialog that accompanies their comprehensive PowerPoint presentations. I just reviewed the latest CEO/CFO presentation posted on their web site, and find that it’s a message of subdued (long-term) optimism.
Here are a few of the high and low points that I picked up. I strongly encourage you to go to the original presentation and go through the charts. The PowerPoint reports read very quickly and paint a comprehensive picture of where we stand as a state and as a metropolitan area.
- From a U.S. perspective, job growth, business spending, and low interest rates continue to fuel the economy, while housing costs, inflation, and consumer spending are not.
- Per 2006 statistics, Arizona was #1 in job growth (% change) and #1 in population change. Year to date 2007, we are #4.
- Phoenix-Mesa continue to rank as the #1 employment growth area when compared. While industries are declining (e.g. construction, manufacturing) and slowing (e.g. retail, financial), the majority of industries (60%) are growing.
- Key point: The local economy is expected to outperform the nation as a whole, but housing needs to be watched.
One the most interesting statistics was related to the number of homes in foreclosure. With one million occupied homes in the Phoenix Metro area, only 1%, or just over 10,000 homes, are in foreclosure. From what I’ve read in the press, I just assumed that this number was much higher.
Pollack estimates the recovery of the housing market to begin in 2008 / 2009, with a full recovery taking 3-5 years. And, the report includes a caveat that if people considering a move to Arizona cannot sell their home, population growth in Arizona will slow.
All in all, the report indicates that the conditions mentioned are short-term, and that our long-term economic outlook is positive.
0 responses so far ↓
Care to comment?
Leave a Comment