Some people chase rainbows, others chase tornadoes. Me, I go for sunrises.
Today, I grabbed my camera and jumped on my bike, to snap a few. This is from the east bank of Sandpiper in McCormick Ranch.
Reflection of the morning in McCormick Ranch - looking east from Sandpiper to through the golf course to Camello Vista.
From the McCormick Ranch golf course (north of the McCormick Parkway) looking northeast. McDowell Mountains are in the distance to the left. Community of Santa Fe is across the water.
Heading back home on McCormick Ranch golf path (Pine course) looking back over my shoulder for one more glimpse of the Sunday sunrise. Community of Camello Vista is to the right.
Crossing the golf cart bridge heading back into Sandpiper. The water in the golf course lakes is so calm in the morning.
I give my thanks to the many men and women who created and built this great country and continue to preserve our freedoms. We are a nation of diversity, as demonstrated by the many ways our Star Spangled Banner is interpreted and shared.
From the Star-Spangled Banner YouTube Singing Contest
Played on a Louisville Slugger bat by Glenn Donnellan of the National Symphony Orchestra
Jordan Sparks at the 2008 Super Bowl from Glendale, Arizona
By Jimi Hendrix at Woodstock
Jake Shimabukuro on the ukelele
And sung by the combined U.S. military cadet choirs
Altos Research has a proprietary market action index they use to track the real estate market. Looking at Scottsdale’s action over the past year, it shows that real estate is on an upward trend. Sales are up. Inventory (number of homes for sale) is down. Prices are still dropping. All of these aspects of the real estate market are included in calculating the health of the market. From this chart, Scottsdale still has a long way to go since an index of 30 is considered a balanced market, but for now, it’s headed in a healthier direction.
Not being content with generalities, and knowing that real estate is local, I’ve broken down this same indicator by zip code, and then grouped by North, Central, and South Scottsdale.
South Scottsdale Real Estate
This area covers from Indian Bend Road south to Tempe. The lower priced homes in 85257 are definitely leading the way, but 85251 and 85250, are not far behind and are following the same trend of improvement, since the low point at the beginning of 2009.
Central Scottsdale
This area runs from Indian Bend Road north to about Bell Road, but doesn’t include McDowell Mountain Ranch. The Scottsdale zip codes 85254 (that’s located mostly in the City of Phoenix) and 85260 are showing the most improvement (since Feb 2009) with 85259 (east of the 101), and 85258 (McCormick and Gainey Ranches) bringing up the rear.
North Scottsdale
North Scottsdale Scotts zip codes 85255, 85266, and 85262 are showing improvement as we move through the year and are much more stable than the latter part of 2008.
When you look at the where the Market Action Index is currently hovering for each portion of the city, you see that South Scottsdale with it’s lower prices is seeing stronger improvement than up north, where the average price of a home is considerably higher.
To put it in perspective:
North Scottsdale Market Index ranges from 11-13. Central Scottsdale ranges from 13-16, and South Scottsdale ranges from 15-18.
From the charts, you can see that the latter portion of 2008 was considerably stronger than anything we’ve seen this year. Short sales and foreclosures are playing an increasing role in the Scottsdale real estate market. Time will tell what the overall impact will be.
Business Week Forecasts Phoenix Home Prices Will Rise
A Business Week article dated June 23 and titled “What Your Home Will be Worth in 2012″ by Prashant Gopal and Diana Holden attempts to forecast what the median price might be in 2012. They cover the 50 largest metro areas, but we are only really interested in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metro. Their analysis for this metro is as follows:
What a Home Will Be Worth in 2012: $141,859
Q4 2008 price: $169,000
Projected price change by MSA: -16.1%
Projected price change by state: -17.2%
The prices are stated to be median sales prices. $169,000 was the monthly median sales price for “all areas and types” on October 18, 2008, so that matches up nicely. What is mysterious is why they would start with a price that is so ancient as the comparison point. Since this article was also featured prominently on Yahoo’s home page, it is likely to have been seen by a large number of people. I wonder what their overall impression was - that prices would go down? In fact the article is saying that the median home price will increase quite significantly from today’s level.
The projected price change by MSA is -16.1%. However monthly median sales prices already fell twice as far between October 18, 2008 and April 30, 2009 to $115,000, a change of -32%. The forecast median sales price of $141,859 requires an increase of 23.4% over the coming 3 years from the April 30 level to meet their forecast.
The median sales price for “all areas and types” has risen $10,000 or 8.7% in the two months since the end of April, so we have covered more than a third of that increase already. The Business Week forecast now requires a further increase from $125,000 to $141,859 - a change of 13.5% over three years, which is pretty close to a “normal” level of home price appreciation.
It is strange that Business Week expressed their forecast as a drop in prices from Q4 2008 when it actually represents a substantial increase from today’s price levels. I would have thought that would make a more interesting story, but never mind. It’s all in the presentation, I guess.
