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Scottsdale Annual Average Home Prices on the Verge of Breaking $200/SF

by Dru Bloomfield on April 30, 2013

Scottsdale home prices continue to increase. While monthly averages have fluctuated over the past year, ranging between $170 and $210 per square foot, the overall trend in definitely positive. Looking at the annual average, this more tempered measurement shows an average price of $165/SF one year ago, with a steady increase to $190/SF this month.

Comparing April 2013 average sale price per square foot with April 2012, Scottsdale home prices have appreciated 13.7%. An extremely healthy improvement.

And getting back into the $200/SF price point puts the Scottsdale housing market back into home price ranges that haven’t been seen since 2005.

If you have any questions about the Scottsdale real estate market, please let me know.

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When will Scottsdale home sellers believe that the housing crisis is over?

by Dru Bloomfield on April 13, 2013

Many Scottsdale home owners still believe that we are in the midst of a housing crisis and are delaying putting their homes up for sell.

However, if you ask any recent Scottsdale home buyer about the housing crisis, they would either laugh or grimace. From their perspective, it’s was a battle to buy a home. Too few homes for sale, appreciating prices, and interest rates have been inching up.

And here’s why there’s there’s a misunderstanding about our current real estate market in Scottsdale. Read what the Cromford Report published last week.

April 6 – A good example of how long it takes for the population at large to acknowledge a real change in the housing market is to be found in a survey recently reported by Hart Research Associates. During February and March 2013 the1,433 interviewees were asked the question:

Thinking now about the housing crisis that started in 2008 when many people and families defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes, do you think the housing crisis is pretty much over, that we are still in the middle of it, or that the worst is yet to come in terms of the housing crisis?

58% think we are still in the middle of the housing crisis

20% think the housing crisis is pretty much over

19% think the worst is yet to come

3% were not sure

Of course the facts are very clear, but 80% of the public have not yet accepted those facts. The housing crisis actually started in 2006 but the public did not really notice until 2008. By April 2009 homes in the City of Phoenix had pretty much lost all the value they were going to lose. From reputable analysis sources we can see that most (but not all) parts of the country were well into recovery during 2012. The majority of the general public will probably not really acknowledge the recovery until 2014 or maybe even 2015.

The housing recovery is obvious to a large majority of the economists and analysts who look at the housing numbers and draw conclusions from them without filtering them through a political lens. You can still find plenty of doom-laden articles in publications like Forbes and Yahoo, presumably because forecasts of impending financial disaster attracts readers and editors seem to set a low standard for accuracy and logic when selecting opinion pieces to publish. These articles are almost without exception based on wild theories and/or extrapolations of incorrect or misinterpreted data. The most popular negative opinion pieces are currently based on the unsubstantiated claim that "the market is dominated by large investors". They typically quote Phoenix as a prime example. This claim is not supported by examination of the sales volumes, especially if we use dollar values rather than unit volumes. When we examine the percentages of single family housing units sold in Greater Phoenix, the market continues to be dominated by owner-occupiers, followed by second-home buyers (including snowbirds), followed closely by small investors (who are very numerous in Phoenix) with institutional or large investors coming in a distant fourth. Large investors’ market share has grown fast in the last 2 years but they are still the least of the four groups of buyers.

So, what do you think? Is the housing crisis over in Scottsdale, or is it an ongoing issue?

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Scottsdale Home Prices Continue to Appreciate

by Dru Bloomfield on March 25, 2013

Scottsdale home prices are still on the rise. Many home buyers who are just beginning to investigate Scottsdale real estate are shocked to see how vibrant the market. With a continued shortage of inventory, hungry home buyers, and slightly rising interest rates, competition is high and prices are going up as a result.

Comparing the average price per square foot for Scottsdale single family home sales, it’s easy to see that since January 2011, the local real estate market has definitely improved, significantly. From a –15% to a +20% rate of appreciation in less than 24 months.

Now, look at the long-term view, from January 2003 through February 2013. From positive single digit appreciation to a high of 40+% in 2005, dropping to –30% in 2008, and gradually improving to the current 20% range.

The good news with the improved health of the appreciating Scottsdale real estate market is that home owners now are seeing equity in their homes, and are selling now, either upsizing, or downsizing, depending on their age and lifestyle preferences.

If you have any questions about the current Scottsdale real estate market, please let me know.

And to do a quick search of the homes on the market in Scottsdale, please visit my Scottsdale Home Search.

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Scottsdale Home Prices Up 17%

by Dru Bloomfield on February 26, 2013

Scottsdale home prices have been climbing, just like the rest of the valley. This month’s average sales price per square foot for Single Family Homes is $197, rapidly approaching the $200/sf standard that Scottsdale has been known for. The average for this year to date is slightly lower, at $185/sf.

Now, looking at appreciation, you can see that sales prices, based on price per square foot, are up 17% over the same time last year. And comparing this month’s average sales price with the average of the year-to-date, you can see that the appreciation trend is definitely continuing, up over 6%.

The number of buyers still exceeds the number of house available, so it easy to imagine that this trend will continue. With multiple offers still being common for well-priced and well-placed properties, home prices are definitely on the rise in Scottsdale.

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Scottsdale Home Prices Getting Healthy–Finally Pass $200/sf

by Dru Bloomfield on December 28, 2012

Scottsdale home prices are definitely on the rise. If you take a look at the chart below, you’ll see that since October 2011 that Scottsdale is definitely seen an increase in single family home prices. (While this chart showing the three month moving average sales price per square foot says that it’s for the greater Phoenix area, it’s actually data for only the City of Scottsdale. The data includes normal sales, short sales, and foreclosures for single family homes only.)

From a low average sales price per square foot of $163 in October 2011, prices rose $185/square foot during the summer. After a slight dip in the fall prices, have continued to appreciate up to $194/square foot at the end of the year. The appreciation rate for average sales price per square foot over the past year if 17.5% for single family homes in Scottsdale.

This next chart looks almost identical to the prior chart. This data represents Scottsdale single-family homes, normal sales only. The graph line has the same shape but the numbers are different for instance below in September 2011, is $187 per square foot. In the fall prices rose to $196 per square foot, before tapering off and then surging to $205 per square foot.

So you can see that normal sales in Scottsdale for single-family homes still carry a bit of a premium. And, the other good news is that this rolling 3-month average sales price has finally passed the $200 a square foot. And to me, this is definitely a sign that Scottsdale real estate is on the road to better health.

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Normal Homes Dominate the Scottsdale Real Estate Market

by Dru Bloomfield on December 5, 2012

Over the past year, the number of homes for sale in Scottsdale has continued to drop, from 1800 at the first of the year to just under 1600 currently. Looking at the chart below, you can see that normal homes (i.e. homes are not short sales or foreclosures) dominate the Scottsdale real estate market.

What is more apparent when you look at the types of homes for sale is that the number of normal homes has remained more constant this year. Starting and ending this year at just over 1400 homes.

And when you look at the number of short sales on the market, you see that they have dropped significantly over the past year, from 180 listed a year ago, to just over 60 now.

And the situation with foreclosures is the same. Approximate 100 lender-owned homes were listed a year ago, and now there are about 40.

It’s a great way to end the year, knowing that the Scottsdale real estate market continues to improve.

If you are interested seeing some of the homes in Scottsdale that are currently on the market, here are some easy searches for all Scottsdale zip codes.

Homes for Sale in Scottsdale

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Scottsdale Foreclosure Update

by Dru Bloomfield on November 28, 2012

Here’s an interesting update on the Phoenix Metro (including Scottsdale) real estate market. In Foreclosure Discounts Vanishing, Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, is quoted:

“The smallest foreclosure discount is found in places where competition for homes is so high, people there are willing to pay the same amount for a foreclosure re-sale that they would for a non-distressed home simply to take advantage of historic affordability”

The smallest foreclosure discounts can be found in:

Las Vegas (0%)

Phoenix (0%)

Phoenix and Las Vegas were the only two cities on the list with zero percent discounts.

Since my focus is Scottsdale, I took a look at the details to see if this non-discounting phenomenon held true in this city.

From the chart above, you will see that:

83% of homes for sale in Scottsdale are now “normal”
14% are short sales
3 of the total listings are foreclosures.

From the active listing perspective, there is still a huge gap between average $ per square foot between normal sales and distress sales. Almost a 50% difference.

Looking that the sales in the last 30 days:

73% were normal sales
21% were short sales
6% were foreclosures.

The big difference here is that the price per square foot for sold homes is much closer. Not zero percent though.

The discounting for foreclosures is about 14%, and for short sales is 20%.

However, when you compare these figures to last year, you can see (below) that the gap has closed significantly. Last year, the discounting for foreclosures was 32%, and 25% for short sales.

So, the Scottsdale real estate market is improving, with the number of distressed sales diminishing significantly over the past year. Prices are on the rise, too. Definitely good news for sellers heading into the spring 2013 selling season.

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